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LIST  December 2013

LIST December 2013

Subject:

Re: Kinmont] New (FY2014) government budget

From:

Alexander Arthur <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

NBR's Japan Forum <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 25 Dec 2013 11:01:23 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

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text/plain (22 lines)

I second the view of the former stockbroker. Modestly rising prices plus real economic growth does amazing things to fiscal deficits. Just recall that in 2008, after six years of expansion, Japan actually reduced the value of outstanding JGBs because of rising revenues. That is, it ran a small surplus, as viewed through the national accounts. All that without any real fiscal policy change. (Don't look at budgets; they really do not tell you much.)

Arthur Alexander (a former economist)


On Dec 25, 2013, at 5:00 AM, Japan Forum Member wrote:

Why is it regrettable that bond issues are to be over 40 trillion yen? Why does that matter? In fact, after adjustment for what the MOF calls debt service costs which are not ' debt service' but rather debt amortization, actual net new bond issuance is likely to be around 30 trillion. Frankly, who cares?

Isn't the more important fact that the merest hint of reflation has raised tax revenues to 50 trillion yen? In other words, Japan has no fiscal problem. It has had a tax receipt problem.

And this was a problem of lousy government (not, let's be clear, unique to Japan.....) - lousy government of whichever party pursuing a policy of deflation which, funnily enough, deflated tax revenues and gave rise to the appearance of a ' fiscal problem ' where none existed or exists. Maybe marginally less lousy government was all that was required?

AK

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