Is there any data on "underemployment". Is there a way to factor into the employment figures those who have found jobs as contract or temp employees with no long term guarantee of work and income, and with no benefits. Is this data available? If it is, what can it tell us about the economy?
2002 to 2023 is quite a range. As far as I know, no economist has successfully explained what debt ratio is not sustainable."
I added that the major error was assuming health care costs will keep climbing in Japan.
I also wrote:
"Two bad quarters in a row is at least a case for recession. Was there also no recession in 2012 when unemployment was also falling, the stock market was rising and three quarters in a row were mildly negative?"
"That's right, the last Japanese recession was in 2008-9, if you look at a graph of the unemployment rate.
Yes, unemployment was falling before Abe took office, but it's now at a level lower than at any other time in the 21st century, even lower than at the peak of the 2007 boom. But obviously that doesn't prove Abe's policies caused that outcome, just that his policies certainly don't seem an obvious failure.
The growth since 2011 has averaged greater than 0%, as you say, [Sumner had written that journalists aren't aware that Japan's long term growth trend is 0%] but that's not how one establishes the trend rate of growth. The trend rate is the RGDP growth rate over a substantial period where the unemployment rate is stable. And since unemployment has been falling since 2011, the recent growth rate has been above trend.
I completely agree with your comments that it's almost possible to predict financial crises, and I've never tried to do so. I make a much weaker claim; the larger the debt burden the greater the risk, that's all.
I happen to think there is more than a 50-50 chance that Japanese rates will stay low."